First off – an apology! I’ve not blogged since January 8th – because in short I’ve had a lot going on, I’m moving and possibly changing jobs over the next few weeks/months and things have just been very very busy!
Now however I’ve got a little bit of time I have a couple of thoughts. Earlier in the day I tweeted that I think that Gordon Brown will call a General Election in the next week and set the date for that election to something like the 25th March (last Thursday of the month). Obviously I have no information to back that up, but the noises that have appeared on various blogs and the news and in the polls (with the Tory lead dropping to less than 10 points on average now) suggest that Brown will do what he should have done in 2007, and that is call an “early” election.
Obviously given the Prime Minister’s tendency towards dilly-dallying rather than decisive action this might not happen. However I expect that given the way the political landscape is moving at the moment (the Tories seem surprisingly inept and Labour are even more surprisingly sort of taking advantage whilst slipping up a fair bit themselves) it would seem that perhaps, just maybe Gordon Brown and Labour could hang on to a slim majority or more likely win the most seats in a hung parliament (when no doubt the Lib Dems and Labour will once again shack up).
Iain Dale has the annoucement that Gordon Brown’s appearance at the Chilcott (Iraq War) inquiry will take place on the 4th-5th March and in his estimation that rules out a March GE. Whilst he obviously has more political nouse and knowledge than I, I have to respectfully disagree. And I have two reasons (maybe 3) to back up my thoughts:
The first is that regardless of Brown’s pronouncements that he is happy to go to Chilcott, I do not think he is. The Chilcott inquiry cannot possibly go well in the long run for Brown as it links him again with the very unpopular decision to go to war in Iraq, and reminds people that, as the Chancellor at the time, if he wanted too, he could have in all likelyhood stopped it from happening. Make no mistake, in my view, Gordon Brown is every bit as responsible as Tony Blair for the Iraq War, and I doubt I’m alone in that viewpoint. One way to get out of the inquiry before an election is for Brown to call that election. Because then Chilcott would have to break (as I understand it) until after the election, and thus postpone the day of destiny for the current PM.
The second is the dreaded “b” word…”Budget”. I doubt that Gordon Brown would want a budget before an election for two reasons. The first is because he will have to announce big tax hikes for either the next year or next parliament – which will immediately put off voters in his estimation – though I think it has to be done (and the Tories themselves have said this too), and that it can be done in a way which would hit the lower and middle income persons in this country the least whilst hitting harder those on higher incomes. You might say that this is the “Labour philosophy” but over the last 13 years it has not been – does anyone recall 10p tax, or higher national insurance (hitting employment), or rises in fuel duty etc etc. This list goes on.
The second reason that Brown would not want a budget before an election is the dreaded “c” word – “Cuts”. Brown would have to, in all likelyhood, announce big cuts in public spending. Which would leave people wondering – “well, the Tories have been saying for more than 6 months that this is the case. Why did he (Brown) suggest that the Tories were being savage and would ruin public services when he will just do the same himself? Who do we prefer, someone who is honest even at the expense of some electability, or a liar?”
The third reason why Brown would not want a budget before an election is this. If you take it as read that he (Brown) would not be able to be honest in a pre-election budget and announce tax rises and cuts in public spending to reduce a deficit that is absolutely massive, then he would have to do neither of those things. This would in all likelyhood mean a continuation or increase in borrowing, along with no rises in obvious taxes (income, national insurance etc) but in stealth taxes (alcohol, cigarettes, fuel duty etc etc). Some people predict that should this happen that borrowing would become a massive issue for the government because with a debt already this large, inflation rising worryingly fast (3.5% in 2 months) and sure to continue (therefore causing interest rates to rise inthe long term to attempt to control inflation) why would people who buy Government debt want to continue buying a nearly broke countries debt for another god knows how long – maybe as much as 5 years!
So that was my second reason. The third reason is another economic reason – there is no guarantee that we will not return to recession (or negative growth at least) over the next 3 calendar months. Only today we heard of Corus closing a steel plant in the north east, potentially causing a fallout of 8000 job losses when taking into account losses in ancilliary businesses, and that in January sales of goods dropped off by over 1%…all is not looking sweet for the economy despite what the Government say.
All in all therefore I believe electorally going sooner rather than later is certainly better for Brown and Labour. Though were that to be the outcome, and Brown and Labour were to win through, what would be the consequences for this country of another 5 years of high and increasing tax, and massive borrowing that we cannot afford? I fear it would be disaster.
